COVID-19: 5.1 day incubation period estimated
A new analysis of SARS-CoV-2 data has found that a 14 day quarantine for those likely to have been exposed to the virus is effective at slowing the spread of the disease.
The study, led by researchers at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, found a median disease incubation period of 5.1 days. Their analysis indicates that the vast majority of people infected will show symptoms within 11.5 days, with an estimated 101 individuals developing symptoms after 14 days for every 10,000 quarantined.
Quarantines can effectively slow or even stop the spread of infections even when some outlier cases show symptoms. Senior author Justin Lessler stated that a 14 day quarantine for coronavirus would generally provide an appropriate balance between slowing infection rates and the personal and societal costs of isolating individuals, although longer quarantine periods may be justified in certain high-risk scenarios.
While the results of this analysis are similar to earlier studies using less case data, the findings will provide public health officials, healthcare workers and members of the public with greater certainty of the effectiveness of quarantine measures. To further assist i making these decisions, the research team have published an online tool to model the outcomes of various durations of quarantine.
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Source: Medical Xpress