Sexual health

Dr Amanda Henry
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Women often wonder what the “right” length of time is after giving birth before getting pregnant again. A recent Canadian study suggests 12-18 months between pregnancies is ideal for most women. But the period between pregnancies, and whether a shorter or longer period poses risks, is still contested, especially when it comes to other factors such as a mother’s age. It’s important to remember that in high-income countries most pregnancies go well regardless of the gap in between.

What is short and long

The time between the end of the first pregnancy and the conception of the next is known as the interpregnancy interval. A short interpregnancy interval is usually defined as less than 18 months to two years. The definition of a long interpregnancy interval varies – with more than two, three or five years all used in different studies. Most studies look at the difference every six months in the interpregnancy interval makes. This means we can see whether there are different risks between a very short period in between (less than six months) versus just a short period (less than 18 months). Most subsequent pregnancies, particularly in high-income countries like Australia, go well regardless of the gap. In the recent Canadian study, the risk of mothers having a severe complication varied between about one in 400 to about one in 100 depending on the interpregnancy interval and the mother’s age. The risk of stillbirth or a severe baby complication varied from just under 2% to about 3%. So overall, at least 97% of babies and 99% of mothers did not have a major issue. Some differences in risk of pregnancy complications do seem to be related to the interpregnancy interval. Studies of the next pregnancy after a birth show that:

What about other factors?

How much of the differences in complications are due to the period between pregnancies versus other factors such as a mother’s age is still contested. On the one hand, there are biological reasons why a short or a long period in between pregnancies could lead to complications. If the gap is too short, mothers may not have had time to recover from the physical stressors of pregnancy and breastfeeding, such as pregnancy weight gain and reduced vitamin and mineral reserves. They may also not have completely recovered emotionally from the previous birth experience and demands of parenthood. If the period between pregnancies is quite long, the body’s helpful adaptations to the previous pregnancy, such as changes in the uterus that are thought to improve the efficiency of labour, might be lost. However, many women who tend to have a short interpregnancy interval also have characteristics that make them more at risk of pregnancy complications to start with – such as being younger or less educated. Studies do attempt to control for these factors. The recent Canadian study took into account the number of previous children, smoking and the previous pregnancy outcomes, among other things. Even so, they concluded that risks of complications were modestly increased with a lower-than-six-month interpregnancy period for older women (over 35 years) compared to a 12-24-month period. Other studies, however, including a 2014 West Australian paper comparing different pregnancies in the same women, have found little evidence of an effect of a short interpregnancy interval.

So, what’s the verdict?

Based on 1990s and early 2000s data, the World Health Organisation recommends an interpregnancy interval of at least 24 months. The more recent studies would suggest that this is overly restrictive in high-resource countries like Australia. Although there may be modestly increased risks to mother and baby of a very short gap (under six months), the absolute risks appear small. For most women, particularly those in good health with a previously uncomplicated pregnancy and birth, their wishes about family spacing should be the major focus of decision-making. In the case of pregnancy after miscarriage, there appears even less need for restrictive recommendations. A 2017 review of more than 1 million pregnancies found that, compared to an interpregnancy interval of six to 12 months or over 12 months, an interpregnancy interval of less than six months had a lower risk of miscarriage and preterm birth, and did not increase the rate of pre-eclampsia or small babies. So, once women feel ready to try again for pregnancy after miscarriage, they can safely be encouraged to do so.
Dr Linda Calabresi
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Australian research has found an increased risk of intellectual disability with some forms of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART). The WA study published in Pediatrics found that one in 48 children conceived using ART were diagnosed with an intellectual disability, compared with only one in 59 children conceived naturally. And the risk was even greater for certain subgroups within the ART cohort. “The risk was more than doubled for those born very preterm, for severe [intellectual disability] and after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatments,” said the researchers from the Telethon Kids Institute. To conduct the study, researchers analysed population registers of over 200,000 live births occurring between 1994 and 2002 in Western Australia and examined data on ART and diagnoses of intellectual disability occurring within eight years of follow-up. The fact that the study findings were based on analyses of statistics from almost 20 years ago was acknowledged by the authors, especially since ART practices have changed greatly since then. “Our study included children born from 1994 to 2002 when multiple embryo transfer was common practice in Western Australia,” they said. This increased the likelihood of a multiple pregnancy and preterm birth. However even when the analyses are restricted to singleton births the small increased risk of intellectual disability persisted but was not as great. The link between ICSI-conceived children and intellectual disability was also of interest. At the time, this technique was restricted to couples with severe male-factor subfertility and was often associated with older aged males. “Genetic abnormalities occur more frequently in men who are infertile, so ICSI (which bypasses natural selection barriers) may allow for the transmission of chromosomal anomalies in the offspring,” the authors said. According to the study, one in 32 children conceived using ICSI were diagnosed with an intellectual disability. ICSI is now used more broadly, prompting concerns. As lead author, Dr Michele Hansen said, “[ICSI] is currently used in 63 per cent of treatment cycles.” “Our findings show an urgent need for more recent data to establish whether the increased risks of intellectual disability seen in children conceived using ICSI are solely related to severe male subfertility and older paternal age, or if there are other risks associated with the technique itself.” Overall the study findings provide supportive evidence for Australia’s current IVF policy of single embryo transfer unlike many other countries where multiple embryo transfers are still routinely performed. The researchers also point out the study has implications for the use of ICSI, or more exactly restricting the use of ICSI and recognising the increased risk of genetic anomalies that might occur in children conceived in this way. “These couples may opt to use preimplantation genetic testing to maximise the transfer of chromosomally normal embryos,” they suggest.  

Reference

Hansen M, Greenop KR, Bourke J, Baynam G, Hart RJ, Leonard H. Intellectual Disability in Children Conceived Using Assisted Reproductive Technology. Pediatrics. 2018; 142(6): e20181269. DOI 10.1542/peds.2018-1269
Victorian Assisted Reproductive Treatment Authority (VARTA)
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Fertility Week 2018 starts on October 15. This year’s message, Healthy You, Healthy Baby encourages men and women to consider their health before conception to improve their chance of conceiving, and to do their best for their baby’s future health. It has been known for some time that the general environment of a uterus can cause epigenetic changes to a fetus, but there is now growing evidence that the health of both parents before and at the time of conception influences their chance of conceiving and the short and long-term health of their child. The environment where eggs and sperm mature and the composition of the fluid in the fallopian tube when fertilisation takes place are affected by parents’ general health. So, in addition to the genetic material parents contribute to their children, the health of their eggs and sperm health at the time of maturation and conception has lasting effects on the expression of the genes and the health of the future child. Obesity, smoking, environmental toxins, alcohol, drugs, lack of physical activity and poor nutrition all pose risks to the health of egg and sperm and consequently to the health of a future child. Chronic health conditions such as diabetes and hypertension can also adversely affect gamete health.

Why promoting preconception health in primary health care is important

Whether they are actively trying for a baby or not, people of reproductive age can potentially conceive any time. This is why preconception health messages need to be integrated into primary health care and discussed opportunistically with women and men of reproductive age whenever possible.

Screening for pregnancy intention

A condition for preconception health optimisation is that the pregnancy is planned. To reduce the risk of unintended pregnancy, the ‘Guidelines for preventive activities in general practice’ recommend screening for pregnancy intention in primary health care settings. A promising method for assessing the risk of unintended pregnancy and giving prospective parents the opportunity to optimise their preconception health is the One Key Question® (OKQ) initiative developed by the Oregon Foundation for Reproductive Health. It proposes that women are asked ‘Would you like to become pregnant in the next year?’ as a routine part of primary health care to identify the reproductive health services they need to either avoid pregnancy or increase the chances of a successful one. This non-judgemental approach allows practitioners to provide advice about reliable contraception if the answer is ‘no’ and information about preconception health if the answer is ‘yes’ or ‘maybe’.

Providing preconception health information and care

While a 15-minute consultation will not allow in depth discussions about contraception or preconception health, directing women to reliable sources of information and inviting them to make a time to come back to discuss their reproductive health needs in light of their pregnancy intentions might increase awareness of the importance of preconception health optimisation. Considering the mounting evidence about the role of paternal preconception health for fertility and the health of offspring, men also need to be made aware of the importance of being in the best possible shape in preparation for fatherhood. Directing men to accessible and reliable sources of information about male reproductive health can improve awareness about how they can contribute to the long-term health of their children.

Quality resources

Your Fertility is the Commonwealth Government funded national fertility health promotion program that improves awareness among people of reproductive age and health and education professionals about potentially modifiable factors that affect fertility and reproductive outcomes. A media campaign planned for Fertility Week will encourage men and women to seek the information they need from their GP. The Your Fertility website, www.yourfertility.org.au is designed to assist time-poor practitioners to direct their patients through evidence-based, up-to-date, accessible information about all aspects of female and male reproductive health. Resources on the Fertility Week page include videos from fertility experts, facts sheets and messages tailored for both men and women. Short videos produced for health professionals feature Dr Magdalena Simonis, GP, and Associate Professor Kate Stern, fertility specialist, who both describe their approaches to raising lifestyle issues and fertility with male and female patients of reproductive age. The RACGP’s preconception care checklist for practitioners is available from www.racgp.org.au/AJGP/2018/July/Preconception-care Visit the Your Fertility website content, fact sheets for health professionals and patients help promote the important messages about how healthy parents make heathy babies.   Visit the Your Fertility Website View the Preconception Care Checklist    
Dr Jenny Robson
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Mycoplasma genitalium (M. genitalium), is thought to affect up to 400,000 Australians. It causes urethritis in men, and in women it can lead to pelvic inflammatory disease, cervicitis and preterm labour. It is also a recognised cause of anorectal proctitis along with other infections including Chlamydia trachomatis (including the LGV strains), gonorrhoea, syphilis, HSV and shigellosis. Asymptomatic infection is also common. Who to test Only test those with symptoms and their contacts. Screening asymptomatic people for M. genitalium is not currently recommended. Diagnosis Females: PCR on endocervical or vaginal swab, first pass urine (FPU), ThinPrep -collected by cervical brush/swab. Males: PCR on urethral swab (in preference to FPU), anorectal swabs. Throat swabs are not recommended as pharyngeal infection is uncommon. Transport: Ambient temperature; if there is any delay from collection to transport to the laboratory, the sample must be refrigerated Current treatment recommendations Preliminary data from the patient populations suggests resistance rates to macrolides may be as high as 64 per cent. The highest rates are likely to be in the men who have sex with men (MSM) population. Although information regarding fluoroquinolone resistance (moxifloxacin) is not available with this test, some studies suggest resistance to fluoroquinolones is present in 10–15% of infections. Doxycycline alone is ineffective in two-thirds of infections but will lower bacterial load in most cases, increasing the likelihood of cure with a subsequent antibiotic. Pretreating M. genitalium infections with doxycycline for one week and then treating susceptible infections with azithromycin and macrolide-resistant infections with a fluoroquinolone eradicates >90% of infections. Current treatment regimens Macrolide sensitive Doxycycline 100mg bd for seven days followed by azithromycin 1g stat then 500mg daily for three days (total 2.5g) OR Doxycycline 100mg bd for seven days followed by azithromycin 1g single dose. It is not known to what extent the improved outcomes resulting from the use of doxycycline followed by 2.5g azithromycin are due to this dose of azithromycin, rather than simply the pre-treatment with doxycycline. The higher dose of azithromycin requires a private prescription. Macrolide resistant Doxycycline 100mg bd for seven days followed by moxifloxacin 400mg daily for seven days. A longer course of moxifloxacin may be required in women with pelvic inflammatory disease. Moxifloxacin requires a private prescription, cannot be used in pregnancy and is expensive. It is associated with diarrhoea, occasional tendinopathy and rare neurological and cardiac events. Treatment failures following appropriate fluoroquinolone treatment may require specialist advice. Additional actions Advise no sex without condoms until tested for cure (14 days after completion of treatment). Advise no sex with untested previous sexual partners. Test of cure Test of cure by PCR should be done at least two weeks after treatment is completed i.e. four weeks after commencing therapy. Contact tracing In heterosexuals, the risk of PID and reproductive complications suggests a greater need to trace, test and treat infected contacts. The time period for contact tracing is unknown. Asymptomatic infection and macrolide resistance are more common in MSM and there is only limited evidence that this is harmful. As moxifloxacin will probably be required for treatment, contact tracing may be best confined to continuing partners of a symptomatic person.   References: Australian STI Management Guidelines for Use in Primary Care http://www.sti.guidelines.org.au/sexually-transmissible-infections/mycoplasma-genitalium#management Australian Contact Tracing Manual contacttracing.ashm.org.au/conditions/when-contact-tracing-is-recommended/mycoplasma-genitalium   General Practice Pathology is a new regular column each authored by an Australian expert pathologist on a topic of particular relevance and interest to practising GPs. The authors provide this editorial, free of charge as part of an educational initiative developed and coordinated by Sonic Pathology.

Prof Linda-Gail Bekker
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HIV remains a global challenge. Between 36.7 million and 38.8 million people live with the disease worldwide. And more than 35 million have died of AIDS related causes since the start of the epidemic in the mid-1980s. Two years ago the International Aids Society and The Lancet put together a commission made up of a panel of experts to take stock and identify what the future response to HIV should be. The report is being released to coincide with the 22nd International Aids Conference in Amsterdam. The Conversation Africa’s Health and Medicine Editor Candice Bailey spoke to Head of the International AIDS Society Professor Linda-Gail Bekker, who also led the commission, about its report. What have we learnt about the global HIV response in the last 30 years? The world had an emergency on its hands 30 years ago with the arrival of HIV. A huge amount of effort was put into trying to find solutions. And there were some incredible breakthroughs. First was the miracle of lifesaving antiretroviral treatment, the biggest game changer over the last three decades. Great strides have been made in rolling out the treatment. UNAIDS tells us that 22 million people are currently on treatment. That’s truly remarkable. But we’ve also learnt that relying on the current pace is insufficient. That’s clear from the figures. In some countries the incidence is rising, and in many parts of the world the incidence rate has stalled or plateaued. We are not seeing the downturn that we need to be able to reach the global goal of ending the HIV pandemic by 2030. The biggest lesson we’ve learnt is that we need to reinvigorate the prevention message especially since we have new tools to combat HIV transmission in many different settings. This includes Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) – a daily antiretroviral that’s given to people who have a high risk of contracting HIV to lower their chances of getting infected – as well as treatment as prevention, which involves giving people living with HIV antiretrovirals to suppress their viral loads. For a sustainable response and looking forward to the next era, it will be important to position our responses to HIV within the broader health agenda. Patients don’t only have HIV, they have other issues. There are mental health needs and there are sexual and reproductive health needs, so HIV treatment and care must fit into that broader agenda. This will enable a more sustainable response. This is a challenge in many parts of the world where HIV is in a siloed response and people are only treated by HIV specific services. There needs to be a service delivery model that considers the broader health agenda. This goes beyond integration. We need to think about where can we take the lessons from HIV into other diseases. In the case of HIV, person centred and community-based care has become critical to ensure people get access to treatment. The message is simple: the epidemic is far from over and it’s not time to disengage. We’re here for the long haul. To ensure we have a sustainable approach we need to recalibrate. The commission is calling for a new way of doing business that will seek common cause with other global health issues. We understand that the HIV response will need resources. This will be a great way to get a double bang for the buck. What’s still going wrong? In many regions we have left whole sectors of the population behind. These include men who have sex with men, women who trade sex and people who inject drugs. They aren’t getting proper services because of policy, prejudice and stigma. And different regional pockets need particular attention. One is in Eastern Europe and Central Asia where there has been a 30% increase in new infections since 2010. This is particularly concerning. Its clear that whole regions are being left behind because of politics, denial and stigma. Here the administrations are not doing the evidence based thing – they are failing their people and the response. Another pocket is West and Central Africa. These are countries that are not reducing rates of infection as quickly as we had hoped, often due to limited resources. Nigeria, for example, needs help with the reduction of mother to child transmission. These are areas that are going to need attention, help and encouragement. But we don’t want to put out the notion that we are in trouble across the world. In East and South Africa, for example, we have made significant gains. There is still a lot to be done but the trends are going in the right direction. In many ways South Africa really is a good news story because its administration and politics favour an enthusiastic response to do the right thing. Domestic funding around HIV has increased. South Africa still has the biggest number of people in the world living with HIV – 7.9 million according to the latest HSRC report. But the country is beginning to turn the ship around. That’s something we can be incredibly proud of. There are, nevertheless, still pockets that need attention. For example, adolescent girls and young women under the age of 25 in KwaZulu-Natal are roughly three times more likely than men younger than 25 to be living with HIV. We have had them in our sights but we now need a concentrated effort to tackle HIV in this cohort otherwise we will miss the target. We need to look at the evidence and where can we make an impact with integrated care. This would be through HIV programmes that are part of sexual and reproductive health along with economic empowerment initiatives such as getting girls to stay in school and making sure they have opportunities to make autonomous decisions about sexual and reproductive health. Doing everything for everyone is a waste of money and time. We need to sharpen the tip of our response. We must put our responses where we get the biggest bang for buck and call on those resources that offer prevention and treatment. What are the biggest challenges between now and 2030? Resources are the constant challenge globally. We live in a world where politics is unpredictable. We need to constantly advocate for funding while diversifying funding opportunities. The second challenge is stigma and discrimination. Policy and ideology that is counter productive also feeds into stigma and discrimination. We need to do to something about laws that criminalise behaviour, like sex work, and stigmas towards intravenous drug users, gay people and men who have sex with men. Decriminalising sex work in South Africa, for example, would go a long way to reduce stigma, enable services and help the public health approach. Continuing to understand how to reach young women and girls and protect them socially and medically; those are also big challenges. The ConversationFinally, in South Africa there is a challenge to find men who are not in the health services and get them into care and onto treatment. We know that a suppressed viral load means no HIV transmission and so this should be on its agenda. Linda-Gail Bekker, Professor of medicine and deputy director of the Desmond Tutu HIV Centre at the Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Sophie Cousins
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Mark King has had the clap so many times he’s renamed it ‘the applause’. The first time King had gonorrhoea, he was a teenager in the late 1970s, growing up with his five siblings in Louisiana. He had the telltale signs: burning and discomfort when he urinated and a thick discharge that left a stain in his underwear. King visited a clinic and gave a fake name and phone number. He was treated quickly with antibiotics and sent on his way. A few years later, the same symptoms reappeared. By this time, the 22-year-old was living in West Hollywood, hoping to launch his acting career. While King had come out to his parents, being gay in Louisiana was poles apart from being gay in Los Angeles. For one, homosexuality was illegal in Louisiana until 2003, whereas California had legalised it in 1976. In Los Angeles there was a thriving a gay scene where King, for the first time, could embrace his sexuality freely. He frequented bathhouses and also met men in dance clubs and along the bustling sidewalks. There was lots of sex to be had. “The fact that we weren’t a fully formed culture beyond those spaces… was what brought us together as people. Sex was the only expression we had to claim ourselves as LGBT people,” King says. When he stepped into the brick clinic just a few strides away from the heart of the city’s gay nightlife in Santa Monica, King, with his thick sandy blond hair with a tinge of red through it, looked around the room. It was filled with other gay men. “What do you do when you’re 22 and gay? You cruise other men. I remember sitting in the lobby cruising other men,” King recalls, laughing. “My Summer of Love was 1982. It was a playground. I was young and on the prowl.” Like a few years earlier, the doctor gave him a handful of antibiotics to take for a few days that would clear up the infection. It wasn’t a big deal. In fact, as King describes it, it was “simply an errand to run”. “It was the price of doing business and it wasn’t a high price at all.” But it was the calm before the storm, in more ways than one. When King picked up gonorrhoea again in the 1990s, he was greatly relieved that treatment was now just one dose. Penicillin was no longer effective, but ciprofloxacin was now the recommended treatment and it required only one dose. In King’s eyes, getting gonorrhoea was even less of a hassle. But this was actually a symptom of treatment regimens starting to fail. The bacteria Neisseria gonorrhoeae was on the way to developing resistance to nearly every drug ever used to treat it.

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Newsletter: On receiving the 1945 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discovering penicillin, Alexander Fleming finished his lecture with a warning: “There is the danger,” he told the audience, “that the ignorant man may easily underdose himself and, by exposing his microbes to non-lethal quantities of the drug, make them resistant.” In other words, we have known about bacteria’s ability to evolve resistance to drugs since the dawn of the antibiotic era. Dr Manica Balasegaram is Director of the Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership (GARDP), based in Geneva. It’s a joint initiative between the Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative (DNDi) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and aims to develop new or improved treatments for bacterial infections. “All antibiotics will have a shelf life – that’s just evolution,” he says. “It’s just a question of how quickly it will happen.” Antibiotic resistance is one of the biggest threats to global health, food security and development. Common infections, such as pneumonia and tuberculosis, are becoming increasingly difficult to treat. But GARDP has chosen to focus its attention on gonorrhoea as one of its four main priorities. The sexually transmitted infection caught Balasegaram’s eyes for a host of reasons. For one, a lot of the antibiotics that are currently used against gonorrhoea are used widely for other infections, and N. gonorrhoeae has the ability to acquire resistance from other bacteria frighteningly quickly, meaning it can rapidly build up resistance. Secondly, untreated gonorrhoea infections bring with them a range of potentially serious health implications that can have devastating consequences. “Gonorrhoea is the most important sexually transmitted infection; it’s the one we’re most concerned about,” Balasegaram says. Every year an estimated 78 million people are infected with gonorrhoea, making it the second most frequently reported sexually transmitted bacterial infection after chlamydia, according to WHO. Gonorrhoea can infect the genitals, rectum and throat. Symptoms include discharge from the urethra or vagina and burning during urination called urethritis, caused by inflammation of the urethra. However, many who are infected don’t experience any symptoms, meaning they go undiagnosed and untreated. Complications of untreated gonorrhoea can be severe and disproportionately affect women, who are more likely to experience no symptoms. Untreated gonorrhoea not only increases the risk of contracting HIV but is also linked with an increased risk of pelvic inflammatory disease, which can cause ectopic pregnancy and infertility. A pregnant woman can also pass on the infection to her baby, which can cause blindness. Fixing the threat of resistant gonorrhoea won’t be easy – the challenges in developing a new antibiotic can’t be overestimated. Is the money for research and development (R&D) available? Who will the antibiotic be available to? And most importantly, how will you control its use so you can extend its shelf life? What makes the search for a new antibiotic for gonorrhoea particularly challenging is the frequency of asymptomatic infections along with gonorrhoea’s ability to adapt to its host’s immune system and develop resistance to antibiotics. A major concern is that because N. gonorrhoeae can live in the throat without someone even knowing, the bug can acquire resistance from other bacteria that also live there and which have been exposed to antibiotics in the past. And with evidence that oral sex is becoming increasingly common in some parts of the world, this is particularly challenging. “Oral sex is driving resistance. It’s a network of people having lots of oral sex. It’s the new norm,” says Dr Teodora Wi, a medical officer in WHO’s Department of Reproductive Health and Research in Geneva, talking specifically about Asia. These challenges and concerns have gripped Balasegaram, but nonetheless he’s more determined than ever to bring a new drug to market. “People are dying from drug-resistant infections. This is undoubtedly because this area has not been prioritised in the past because other areas of R&D are far more lucrative,” he says. “Antibiotics are a global public good. I don’t think it’s easy to put a financial value to it.”

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Recent data collected by WHO examined trends in drug-resistant gonorrhoea in 77 countries – countries that are part of the health agency’s Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (GASP), a global network of regional and subregional laboratories that track the emergence and spread of resistance. And the results are grim. More than 80 per cent of the countries that reported on azithromycin, a commonly prescribed antibiotic used to treat numerous common infections, including sexually transmitted infections (STIs), found resistance. Of greatest concern is that 66 per cent of countries surveyed have reported cases that resist last-resort antibiotics called extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs). And as Wi points out, the real-world picture is undoubtedly far bleaker, because global surveillance for drug-resistant gonorrhoea is patchy and more frequently done in higher-income countries, which have greater resources. For example, of the 77 countries that were surveyed, few were in sub-Saharan Africa, a region where rates of gonorrhoea are high. “We’re only seeing half of the real picture. We need to prepare for the future when there’s no cure,” Wi says. But in a sign that time is running out, in March this year health experts’ worst fears were confirmed: a case of super-gonorrhoea, dubbed the world’s “worst ever” case, was found in a man who had attended a local sexual health clinic. He had reportedly had sexual contact with a woman in South-east Asia. Health officials said it was the first time this strain could not be cured with any of the antibiotics normally used to treat the disease. Although the patient has since responded to another antibiotic, doctors described him as “very lucky”. It’s an indication of a wider crisis – and one that knows no boundaries.

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Thailand is one country on the front line of the fight against antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea. It’s a key destination for the sex tourism industry, where STIs like gonorrhoea can spread easily and quickly across borders and beyond. And like many other countries in the region, it has an over-the-counter culture of antibiotic access, which means patients put themselves at risk of being prescribed the wrong drugs – or even worse. I’m in a district close to Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, to meet Boontham, a pharmacist. We meet in the jam-packed stockroom of the herbal medicine company he also runs – a business that’s far more lucrative than his pharmacy. The stockroom is filled head to toe with boxes of tablets containing an array of funky herbs I’ve never heard of. The cost of visiting a doctor and the stigma surrounding STIs mean that many Thais rely on pharmacists like Boontham to cure their gonorrhoea. But he might be doing more harm than good. While Boontham has a degree in pharmacology and has been a pharmacist for more than 30 years, he has no idea of Thailand’s treatment guidelines for gonorrhoea. In fact, he’s more than a decade out of date. And he can’t, of course, diagnose patients accurately, particularly because gonorrhoea has similar symptoms to chlamydia. “If you’ve been doing this for a long time, you just do what you have to, and that’s an educated guess.” “As of now I use ciprofloxacin [to treat gonorrhoea],” he says. “If that doesn’t work, then I guess it’s chlamydia.” I tell him, however, that gonorrhoea in Thailand, as in many other countries, has shown widespread resistance to ciprofloxacin – and that his country actually stopped recommending it more than a decade ago. “It’s not resistant, even doctors use it,” he says. “I prescribe it because it’s cheap. In hospitals they prescribe newer antibiotics that are more effective, but they’re more expensive.” In countries where antibiotics are sold over the counter, research shows people are far more likely to visit pharmacists than a doctor. But while experts acknowledge that restricting the sale of antibiotics – particularly in rural and remote areas where there are few, if any, proper doctors – isn’t the answer, this still presents a major challenge in the fight against drug-resistant infections. “The problem is that when you go to a pharmacist and take antibiotics, maybe… your symptoms have disappeared, but in fact you still have the infection. That means you can transmit the infection and cause more resistance,” Wi says. I ask Boontham whether he’s concerned about resistance – if he’s worried that the people he’s treated for gonorrhoea aren’t cured. “Resistance to medication is a doctor’s job, not a pharmacist’s,” he says. The casual handing out of antibiotics without a prescription is not only confined to Thailand. It’s a huge concern across the rest of the region and in other parts of the world, with no clear vision of how to tackle this growing problem. Handing out antibiotics that likely no longer work for people with gonorrhoea has also been happening in high-income countries – countries that might be expected to have stricter treatment guidelines. In fact, a study published in the BMJ in 2015 found that many GPs in England were prescribing ciprofloxacin, even though it hasn’t been recommended for treating gonorrhoea since 2005. In 2007, ciprofloxacin still made up almost half of prescriptions for gonorrhoea. As recently as 2011, GPs still prescribed it in 20 per cent of cases.

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On a balmy afternoon in bustling Bangkok, I visit Silom Community Clinic @ TropMed, an STI clinic north-east of the city centre dedicated to men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women who have sex with men. Located on the 12th floor of the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, the clinic is spotlessly clean, with bright purple walls, rainbow flags and a sign that immediately catches my eye, which reads “Suck, F*ck, Test, Repeat”. Off the main corridor is a microbiology lab that is doing critical and urgent work in the fight against antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea. In fact, the lab may be the best way Thailand can protect itself from this growing threat. Dr Eileen Dunne is an American epidemiologist and the head of the behavioural and clinical research section of the HIV/STI programme here, which is run as part of a collaboration between Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). She, along with her Thai staff, are Thailand’s best line of defence in slowing gonorrhoea resistance. In 2015, recognising the worldwide danger of increasingly difficult to treat gonorrhoea infections – and the specific threat they posed to Thailand – the US CDC, WHO and Thai MOPH joined forces to launch a programme to track and ultimately limit the spread of antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea. The programme is an enhanced local version of the WHO’s GASP and is the first of its kind in the world. It’s called EGASP. It works like this. If a male patient comes into one of its two clinics with the telltale symptoms of gonorrhoea, he will have a sample collected for analysis and will fill out a questionnaire, which contains questions such as: “Did you take antibiotics in the last two weeks?” To create an open environment, the clinics are anonymous and the questionnaire is done privately on a computer. Men are the target group in the programme, Dunne explains, because the yield for isolating N. gonorrhoeae is very high among men who have urethritis compared with women and those who are asymptomatic. MSM are an important population, she adds, because research shows they are likelier to develop resistance earlier than the general population, for reasons that aren’t precisely known. She and the laboratory staff take me to see if there are any samples being cultured from swabs taken from patients’ penises. Inside the incubator, where the samples are kept in Petri dishes at 36 degrees Celsius with 5 per cent carbon dioxide to promote bacteria growth, there are three. The stench of agar, a brown gelatinous medium that provides nutrients and a stable environment for bacteria to grow, is overwhelming. One Petri dish contains a cluster of bubbly white dots, signalling that the patient does indeed have gonorrhoea. The next step is antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) at a lab downstairs. The isolate will be measured for resistance to five antibiotics, including ciprofloxacin and the last-resort drugs cefixime and ceftriaxone. It’s resistance to these latter two which is of greatest concern. From the beginning of EGASP until 20 October 2017, of the 845 confirmed diagnoses of gonorrhoea that underwent AST, almost all isolates had widespread resistance to ciprofloxacin, as in many other countries. But encouragingly, none have shown resistance to the last-line drugs. That’s a relief for Thailand, but in no way an indication that Dunne and her team’s alacrity should wane. “People are surprised and have asked, ‘Oh, why are you doing this if you don’t show resistance?’,” Dunne says. “It’s actually good to do surveillance and not be detecting resistance yet. It means that we’re early enough to be prepared… and [to] have a plan of response. “Having strong surveillance activity in a region in which this is likely to emerge is important so we can detect it early.” Thailand’s neighbours, specifically Myanmar, India, Indonesia and China, have recorded a significantly higher percentage of gonorrhoea isolates that are resistant to last-line treatments compared to Thailand. With the increasing movement of people around the world and Thailand’s popularity for sex tourism, I can see just how rapidly this threat could have far-reaching consequences. “I think it’s really important to detect early, even one case, [because] it can be a harbinger for future developments of resistance. These bacteria are transmitted very rapidly between people. Being able to really find that one case early means that special steps can be in place to control transmission,” Dunne says. I ask if the focus on MSM means other groups might be being missed. What about women, who are more likely than men to not experience any gonorrhoea symptoms? Or itinerant sex workers from across the border in Myanmar and Cambodia? I wonder if, among this high-risk group, EGASP is missing some of Thailand’s most vulnerable. I ask if there’s potential for the programme to extend its work to include these people and their partners. Dunne agrees it’s a good idea. “This targeted approach in men with symptoms is purposeful but may not be generalisable to the whole population. It’s the tip of the iceberg.” But it’s early on in the programme, and she and the team have to start somewhere. “We need more time,” she says. But no one is really sure how much time Thailand – and the rest of the world – has.

§

The number of people infected with gonorrhoea has risen rapidly in recent years. Australia has seen a 63 per cent increase in the number of reported gonorrhoea cases since 2012, with the fastest rate of increase being in young heterosexual urbanites. In England, gonorrhoea cases rose by 53 per cent between 2012 and 2015, led by young people, gay men and other MSM. Meanwhile, in the USA cases rose by nearly 50 per cent between 2009 and 2016. And according to some experts, one of science’s greatest achievements in the fight against HIV could be a factor. Like many, Mark King’s nonchalant attitude towards sex had come to a halt when the HIV epidemic hit the gay community in the USA. No longer was gonorrhoea simply seen as a small, insignificant price to pay for a night of fun. “Half the fun of being gay [was that] you didn’t have to worry about birth control. Condoms were birth control, not STI control,” says King. “[But] as the years passed and you get into the 90s and we know how HIV is transmitted, to get gonorrhoea is shameful because it means that you’ve been taking risks that could transmit HIV. “Suddenly gonorrhoea became this really shameful thing because it means you’re not doing the right thing.” Move forward to today and HIV is no longer the death threat it once was. A strong civil society movement saw the disease get the political – and scientific – attention it warranted. The development of life-saving drugs means that those with HIV can live long, healthy lives. But as HIV treatment and prevention methods improve, people’s perception of risk may be changing. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a daily pill for people who don’t have HIV but who are at substantial risk of getting it. It’s a powerful tool in the fight against HIV, it is argued. When taken every day, it’s up to 92 per cent effective in preventing infection. But with its development and uptake came alarm bells, with some warning that STI rates would increase among those who used PrEP. Some small studies have hinted that this may be happening. Not all experts agree with this. The data from these studies is ambiguous and cannot be generalised. And some say that regular testing regimes associated with PrEP prescriptions could prevent STIs spreading. However, just as with antibiotics, there are people using PrEP without getting it through official health outlets. A recent survey carried out across Europe by the HIV/AIDS advocacy group AIDES found that about 70 per cent of informal PrEP users were having no regular medical monitoring. King is one of many for whom concerns over STIs in the broader context of having the incredible ability to prevent HIV infection seems absurd. “PrEP opens the door for people to have sex without fear of HIV infection. The reaction is: yes, but what do we do about STIs? Oh my god, gonorrhoea and syphilis,” King says sarcastically. “People ask me, how does a person get HIV or gonorrhoea in this day and age? Well, let’s see: because they were horny, or they said yes when they should have said no, or they had too much to drink, or they fell in love, or they trusted the wrong person.” King’s words may resonate with many around the world. But WHO is focused on increasing condom use. Wi is particularly worried about the proliferation and popularity of dating apps among young people, which she believes are making no-strings-attached sex easier to obtain. “All of us need to be strong about condom use. All of us need to campaign for condom use,” Wi says.

§

Looking ahead, at what point will it be more common to have a gonorrhoea infection that can’t be treated with antibiotics than one that can? The answer is difficult to predict, but it’s also a potential reality that isn’t far-fetched. “We are in a situation now where we are worryingly using the last line of antibiotics for many infections or seeing even resistance to these last-line antibiotics,” Balasegaram says. But as GARDP works to bring a new antibiotic to market, some countries are getting desperate as resistance to the available treatments continues to spread. Australia, which has recorded widespread resistance to azithromycin, is considering going back to an old drug called spectinomycin. Spectinomycin involves a painful muscular injection and has been linked to toxicity and a range of side-effects. Another concern is that it’s in short supply because it’s rarely used around the world any more. To this end, R&D for new antibiotics is urgent. But antibiotic drug development is prohibitively expensive and not attractive to the pharmaceutical industry – even more so when it’s for an STI. In response, GARDP has partnered with Entasis Therapeutics, a US biotech company, to accelerate the development of a new antibiotic that will be produced specifically to target drug-resistant gonorrhoea. Zoliflodacin is a novel first-in-class oral antibiotic – in other words, a new and unique mechanism of potentially treating gonorrhoea – and is one of only three potential new antibiotic candidates currently undergoing trials. It had previously been put through clinical trials in 2015, but a lack of investment stopped the drug from progressing further. This year GARDP and Entasis will launch the last phase of trials of zoliflodacin, involving 650 people in Thailand, South Africa, the USA and parts of Europe. If the drug is approved by regulators, Entasis will permit GARDP to introduce it in 168 low- and middle-income countries. It’s hoping it will be registered by 2021 and available on the market by 2023. A major strength of the partnership between GARDP and Entasis is that it will be able to limit what infections zoliflodacin is used for. “We’re trying to focus this drug specifically on STIs – not other community infections where antibiotics are widely used,” Balasegaram says. “The aim is not to go beyond that because that’s how resistance starts.” To this end, initially the drug will be licensed only for use against gonorrhoea infections. If it proves to be effective against chlamydia and Mycoplasma genitalium (another bacterial STI), the GARDP and Entasis partnership could license it for those two infections as well, subject to clinical trials. “We will support clinical trials and registration and therefore we can play a big role in how it is responsibly introduced and used. That gives us more control in how the drug is introduced and marketed in the countries where we work,” says Balasegaram. Dunne is excited that Thailand will be part of the trials. “It is the underbelly of infections. It doesn’t get the attention it deserves and that is why this is exciting,” she says. A lot is riding on the success of the drug. Will zoliflodacin be successful in remaining effective for as long as possible? Or will it face the same fate as other antibiotics? Moreover, research is risky – there’s no guarantee the clinical trials will be successful. “We still don’t know whether this project will succeed or not,” says Balasegaram. “But it’s a project that we feel is extremely important and that we’re very committed to.” The development of new antibiotics raises myriad questions: How can we ensure they are used appropriately so we can preserve their effectiveness? And how can we ensure those who really need the drugs get them? One way would be a point-of-care rapid diagnostic test – ideally one that could predict which antibiotics will work on a particular infection and that could be used in settings around the world. Balasegaram says they’ve been looking for a simple diagnostic tool like this but haven’t yet found one. Diagnostic tools aside, the responsible use of new antibiotics also relies on robust national and international treatment guidelines and strong regulatory authorities to guide and monitor antibiotic use. “If you have developed an antibiotic for narrow use, you have to think about how to market the drug. We do not want to drop large quantities of it around the world. But we also want to make sure those who need it get it,” he says. This is where strong surveillance programmes, like Thailand’s, are critical. But it’s inevitable that bugs will develop resistance to the next antibiotic and then the next. So Balasegaram wants more investment in R&D that focuses not only on new antibiotics but also on alternative ways to treat bacterial infections. “We have to continue to do R&D into… therapeutic ways to treat these infections differently,” he says. “This may include novel and non-conventional approaches. I think that is a job that is going to last decades.” What that might look like is complex. It may include designing antibodies that specifically target bacteria or using bacteriophages – viruses that infect bacteria – as a replacement for antibiotics. Either way, many feel that the end of the antibiotic era is near and that the transition from antibiotics to non-traditional treatments poses major challenges that won’t be easy to solve. “It’s worth bearing in mind that bacteria can evolve to different approaches we develop,” says Balasegaram. “I don’t think we will see a magic bullet solution soon that will definitively solve the issue.” It’s a frightening thought. Mark King has had the clap so many times he’s renamed it ‘the applause’. The first time King had gonorrhoea, he was a teenager in the late 1970s, growing up with his five siblings in Louisiana. He had the telltale signs: burning and discomfort when he urinated and a thick discharge that left a stain in his underwear. King visited a clinic and gave a fake name and phone number. He was treated quickly with antibiotics and sent on his way. A few years later, the same symptoms reappeared. By this time, the 22-year-old was living in West Hollywood, hoping to launch his acting career. While King had come out to his parents, being gay in Louisiana was poles apart from being gay in Los Angeles. For one, homosexuality was illegal in Louisiana until 2003, whereas California had legalised it in 1976. In Los Angeles there was a thriving a gay scene where King, for the first time, could embrace his sexuality freely. He frequented bathhouses and also met men in dance clubs and along the bustling sidewalks. There was lots of sex to be had. “The fact that we weren’t a fully formed culture beyond those spaces… was what brought us together as people. Sex was the only expression we had to claim ourselves as LGBT people,” King says. When he stepped into the brick clinic just a few strides away from the heart of the city’s gay nightlife in Santa Monica, King, with his thick sandy blond hair with a tinge of red through it, looked around the room. It was filled with other gay men. “What do you do when you’re 22 and gay? You cruise other men. I remember sitting in the lobby cruising other men,” King recalls, laughing. “My Summer of Love was 1982. It was a playground. I was young and on the prowl.” Like a few years earlier, the doctor gave him a handful of antibiotics to take for a few days that would clear up the infection. It wasn’t a big deal. In fact, as King describes it, it was “simply an errand to run”. “It was the price of doing business and it wasn’t a high price at all.” But it was the calm before the storm, in more ways than one. When King picked up gonorrhoea again in the 1990s, he was greatly relieved that treatment was now just one dose. Penicillin was no longer effective, but ciprofloxacin was now the recommended treatment and it required only one dose. In King’s eyes, getting gonorrhoea was even less of a hassle. But this was actually a symptom of treatment regimens starting to fail. The bacteria Neisseria gonorrhoeae was on the way to developing resistance to nearly every drug ever used to treat it.

§

Recent data collected by WHO examined trends in drug-resistant gonorrhoea in 77 countries – countries that are part of the health agency’s Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (GASP), a global network of regional and subregional laboratories that track the emergence and spread of resistance. And the results are grim. More than 80 per cent of the countries that reported on azithromycin, a commonly prescribed antibiotic used to treat numerous common infections, including sexually transmitted infections (STIs), found resistance. Of greatest concern is that 66 per cent of countries surveyed have reported cases that resist last-resort antibiotics called extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs). And as Wi points out, the real-world picture is undoubtedly far bleaker, because global surveillance for drug-resistant gonorrhoea is patchy and more frequently done in higher-income countries, which have greater resources. For example, of the 77 countries that were surveyed, few were in sub-Saharan Africa, a region where rates of gonorrhoea are high. “We’re only seeing half of the real picture. We need to prepare for the future when there’s no cure,” Wi says. But in a sign that time is running out, in March this year health experts’ worst fears were confirmed: a case of super-gonorrhoea, dubbed the world’s “worst ever” case, was found in a man who had attended a local sexual health clinic. He had reportedly had sexual contact with a woman in South-east Asia. Health officials said it was the first time this strain could not be cured with any of the antibiotics normally used to treat the disease. Although the patient has since responded to another antibiotic, doctors described him as “very lucky”. It’s an indication of a wider crisis – and one that knows no boundaries.

§

Thailand is one country on the front line of the fight against antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea. It’s a key destination for the sex tourism industry, where STIs like gonorrhoea can spread easily and quickly across borders and beyond. And like many other countries in the region, it has an over-the-counter culture of antibiotic access, which means patients put themselves at risk of being prescribed the wrong drugs – or even worse. I’m in a district close to Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, to meet Boontham, a pharmacist. We meet in the jam-packed stockroom of the herbal medicine company he also runs – a business that’s far more lucrative than his pharmacy. The stockroom is filled head to toe with boxes of tablets containing an array of funky herbs I’ve never heard of. The cost of visiting a doctor and the stigma surrounding STIs mean that many Thais rely on pharmacists like Boontham to cure their gonorrhoea. But he might be doing more harm than good. While Boontham has a degree in pharmacology and has been a pharmacist for more than 30 years, he has no idea of Thailand’s treatment guidelines for gonorrhoea. In fact, he’s more than a decade out of date. And he can’t, of course, diagnose patients accurately, particularly because gonorrhoea has similar symptoms to chlamydia. “If you’ve been doing this for a long time, you just do what you have to, and that’s an educated guess.” “As of now I use ciprofloxacin [to treat gonorrhoea],” he says. “If that doesn’t work, then I guess it’s chlamydia.” I tell him, however, that gonorrhoea in Thailand, as in many other countries, has shown widespread resistance to ciprofloxacin – and that his country actually stopped recommending it more than a decade ago. “It’s not resistant, even doctors use it,” he says. “I prescribe it because it’s cheap. In hospitals they prescribe newer antibiotics that are more effective, but they’re more expensive.” In countries where antibiotics are sold over the counter, research shows people are far more likely to visit pharmacists than a doctor. But while experts acknowledge that restricting the sale of antibiotics – particularly in rural and remote areas where there are few, if any, proper doctors – isn’t the answer, this still presents a major challenge in the fight against drug-resistant infections. “The problem is that when you go to a pharmacist and take antibiotics, maybe… your symptoms have disappeared, but in fact you still have the infection. That means you can transmit the infection and cause more resistance,” Wi says. I ask Boontham whether he’s concerned about resistance – if he’s worried that the people he’s treated for gonorrhoea aren’t cured. “Resistance to medication is a doctor’s job, not a pharmacist’s,” he says. The casual handing out of antibiotics without a prescription is not only confined to Thailand. It’s a huge concern across the rest of the region and in other parts of the world, with no clear vision of how to tackle this growing problem. Handing out antibiotics that likely no longer work for people with gonorrhoea has also been happening in high-income countries – countries that might be expected to have stricter treatment guidelines. In fact, a study published in the BMJ in 2015 found that many GPs in England were prescribing ciprofloxacin, even though it hasn’t been recommended for treating gonorrhoea since 2005. In 2007, ciprofloxacin still made up almost half of prescriptions for gonorrhoea. As recently as 2011, GPs still prescribed it in 20 per cent of cases.

§

On a balmy afternoon in bustling Bangkok, I visit Silom Community Clinic @ TropMed, an STI clinic north-east of the city centre dedicated to men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women who have sex with men. Located on the 12th floor of the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, the clinic is spotlessly clean, with bright purple walls, rainbow flags and a sign that immediately catches my eye, which reads “Suck, F*ck, Test, Repeat”. Off the main corridor is a microbiology lab that is doing critical and urgent work in the fight against antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea. In fact, the lab may be the best way Thailand can protect itself from this growing threat. Dr Eileen Dunne is an American epidemiologist and the head of the behavioural and clinical research section of the HIV/STI programme here, which is run as part of a collaboration between Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). She, along with her Thai staff, are Thailand’s best line of defence in slowing gonorrhoea resistance. In 2015, recognising the worldwide danger of increasingly difficult to treat gonorrhoea infections – and the specific threat they posed to Thailand – the US CDC, WHO and Thai MOPH joined forces to launch a programme to track and ultimately limit the spread of antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea. The programme is an enhanced local version of the WHO’s GASP and is the first of its kind in the world. It’s called EGASP. It works like this. If a male patient comes into one of its two clinics with the telltale symptoms of gonorrhoea, he will have a sample collected for analysis and will fill out a questionnaire, which contains questions such as: “Did you take antibiotics in the last two weeks?” To create an open environment, the clinics are anonymous and the questionnaire is done privately on a computer. Men are the target group in the programme, Dunne explains, because the yield for isolating N. gonorrhoeae is very high among men who have urethritis compared with women and those who are asymptomatic. MSM are an important population, she adds, because research shows they are likelier to develop resistance earlier than the general population, for reasons that aren’t precisely known. She and the laboratory staff take me to see if there are any samples being cultured from swabs taken from patients’ penises. Inside the incubator, where the samples are kept in Petri dishes at 36 degrees Celsius with 5 per cent carbon dioxide to promote bacteria growth, there are three. The stench of agar, a brown gelatinous medium that provides nutrients and a stable environment for bacteria to grow, is overwhelming. One Petri dish contains a cluster of bubbly white dots, signalling that the patient does indeed have gonorrhoea. The next step is antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) at a lab downstairs. The isolate will be measured for resistance to five antibiotics, including ciprofloxacin and the last-resort drugs cefixime and ceftriaxone. It’s resistance to these latter two which is of greatest concern. From the beginning of EGASP until 20 October 2017, of the 845 confirmed diagnoses of gonorrhoea that underwent AST, almost all isolates had widespread resistance to ciprofloxacin, as in many other countries. But encouragingly, none have shown resistance to the last-line drugs. That’s a relief for Thailand, but in no way an indication that Dunne and her team’s alacrity should wane. “People are surprised and have asked, ‘Oh, why are you doing this if you don’t show resistance?’,” Dunne says. “It’s actually good to do surveillance and not be detecting resistance yet. It means that we’re early enough to be prepared… and [to] have a plan of response. “Having strong surveillance activity in a region in which this is likely to emerge is important so we can detect it early.” Thailand’s neighbours, specifically Myanmar, India, Indonesia and China, have recorded a significantly higher percentage of gonorrhoea isolates that are resistant to last-line treatments compared to Thailand. With the increasing movement of people around the world and Thailand’s popularity for sex tourism, I can see just how rapidly this threat could have far-reaching consequences. “I think it’s really important to detect early, even one case, [because] it can be a harbinger for future developments of resistance. These bacteria are transmitted very rapidly between people. Being able to really find that one case early means that special steps can be in place to control transmission,” Dunne says. I ask if the focus on MSM means other groups might be being missed. What about women, who are more likely than men to not experience any gonorrhoea symptoms? Or itinerant sex workers from across the border in Myanmar and Cambodia? I wonder if, among this high-risk group, EGASP is missing some of Thailand’s most vulnerable. I ask if there’s potential for the programme to extend its work to include these people and their partners. Dunne agrees it’s a good idea. “This targeted approach in men with symptoms is purposeful but may not be generalisable to the whole population. It’s the tip of the iceberg.” But it’s early on in the programme, and she and the team have to start somewhere. “We need more time,” she says. But no one is really sure how much time Thailand – and the rest of the world – has.

§

The number of people infected with gonorrhoea has risen rapidly in recent years. Australia has seen a 63 per cent increase in the number of reported gonorrhoea cases since 2012, with the fastest rate of increase being in young heterosexual urbanites. In England, gonorrhoea cases rose by 53 per cent between 2012 and 2015, led by young people, gay men and other MSM. Meanwhile, in the USA cases rose by nearly 50 per cent between 2009 and 2016. And according to some experts, one of science’s greatest achievements in the fight against HIV could be a factor. Like many, Mark King’s nonchalant attitude towards sex had come to a halt when the HIV epidemic hit the gay community in the USA. No longer was gonorrhoea simply seen as a small, insignificant price to pay for a night of fun. “Half the fun of being gay [was that] you didn’t have to worry about birth control. Condoms were birth control, not STI control,” says King. “[But] as the years passed and you get into the 90s and we know how HIV is transmitted, to get gonorrhoea is shameful because it means that you’ve been taking risks that could transmit HIV. “Suddenly gonorrhoea became this really shameful thing because it means you’re not doing the right thing.” Move forward to today and HIV is no longer the death threat it once was. A strong civil society movement saw the disease get the political – and scientific – attention it warranted. The development of life-saving drugs means that those with HIV can live long, healthy lives. But as HIV treatment and prevention methods improve, people’s perception of risk may be changing. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a daily pill for people who don’t have HIV but who are at substantial risk of getting it. It’s a powerful tool in the fight against HIV, it is argued. When taken every day, it’s up to 92 per cent effective in preventing infection. But with its development and uptake came alarm bells, with some warning that STI rates would increase among those who used PrEP. Some small studies have hinted that this may be happening. Not all experts agree with this. The data from these studies is ambiguous and cannot be generalised. And some say that regular testing regimes associated with PrEP prescriptions could prevent STIs spreading. However, just as with antibiotics, there are people using PrEP without getting it through official health outlets. A recent survey carried out across Europe by the HIV/AIDS advocacy group AIDES found that about 70 per cent of informal PrEP users were having no regular medical monitoring. King is one of many for whom concerns over STIs in the broader context of having the incredible ability to prevent HIV infection seems absurd. “PrEP opens the door for people to have sex without fear of HIV infection. The reaction is: yes, but what do we do about STIs? Oh my god, gonorrhoea and syphilis,” King says sarcastically. “People ask me, how does a person get HIV or gonorrhoea in this day and age? Well, let’s see: because they were horny, or they said yes when they should have said no, or they had too much to drink, or they fell in love, or they trusted the wrong person.” King’s words may resonate with many around the world. But WHO is focused on increasing condom use. Wi is particularly worried about the proliferation and popularity of dating apps among young people, which she believes are making no-strings-attached sex easier to obtain. “All of us need to be strong about condom use. All of us need to campaign for condom use,” Wi says.

§

Looking ahead, at what point will it be more common to have a gonorrhoea infection that can’t be treated with antibiotics than one that can? The answer is difficult to predict, but it’s also a potential reality that isn’t far-fetched. “We are in a situation now where we are worryingly using the last line of antibiotics for many infections or seeing even resistance to these last-line antibiotics,” Balasegaram says. But as GARDP works to bring a new antibiotic to market, some countries are getting desperate as resistance to the available treatments continues to spread. Australia, which has recorded widespread resistance to azithromycin, is considering going back to an old drug called spectinomycin. Spectinomycin involves a painful muscular injection and has been linked to toxicity and a range of side-effects. Another concern is that it’s in short supply because it’s rarely used around the world any more. To this end, R&D for new antibiotics is urgent. But antibiotic drug development is prohibitively expensive and not attractive to the pharmaceutical industry – even more so when it’s for an STI. In response, GARDP has partnered with Entasis Therapeutics, a US biotech company, to accelerate the development of a new antibiotic that will be produced specifically to target drug-resistant gonorrhoea. Zoliflodacin is a novel first-in-class oral antibiotic – in other words, a new and unique mechanism of potentially treating gonorrhoea – and is one of only three potential new antibiotic candidates currently undergoing trials. It had previously been put through clinical trials in 2015, but a lack of investment stopped the drug from progressing further. This year GARDP and Entasis will launch the last phase of trials of zoliflodacin, involving 650 people in Thailand, South Africa, the USA and parts of Europe. If the drug is approved by regulators, Entasis will permit GARDP to introduce it in 168 low- and middle-income countries. It’s hoping it will be registered by 2021 and available on the market by 2023. A major strength of the partnership between GARDP and Entasis is that it will be able to limit what infections zoliflodacin is used for. “We’re trying to focus this drug specifically on STIs – not other community infections where antibiotics are widely used,” Balasegaram says. “The aim is not to go beyond that because that’s how resistance starts.” To this end, initially the drug will be licensed only for use against gonorrhoea infections. If it proves to be effective against chlamydia and Mycoplasma genitalium (another bacterial STI), the GARDP and Entasis partnership could license it for those two infections as well, subject to clinical trials. “We will support clinical trials and registration and therefore we can play a big role in how it is responsibly introduced and used. That gives us more control in how the drug is introduced and marketed in the countries where we work,” says Balasegaram. Dunne is excited that Thailand will be part of the trials. “It is the underbelly of infections. It doesn’t get the attention it deserves and that is why this is exciting,” she says. A lot is riding on the success of the drug. Will zoliflodacin be successful in remaining effective for as long as possible? Or will it face the same fate as other antibiotics? Moreover, research is risky – there’s no guarantee the clinical trials will be successful. “We still don’t know whether this project will succeed or not,” says Balasegaram. “But it’s a project that we feel is extremely important and that we’re very committed to.” The development of new antibiotics raises myriad questions: How can we ensure they are used appropriately so we can preserve their effectiveness? And how can we ensure those who really need the drugs get them? One way would be a point-of-care rapid diagnostic test – ideally one that could predict which antibiotics will work on a particular infection and that could be used in settings around the world. Balasegaram says they’ve been looking for a simple diagnostic tool like this but haven’t yet found one. Diagnostic tools aside, the responsible use of new antibiotics also relies on robust national and international treatment guidelines and strong regulatory authorities to guide and monitor antibiotic use. “If you have developed an antibiotic for narrow use, you have to think about how to market the drug. We do not want to drop large quantities of it around the world. But we also want to make sure those who need it get it,” he says. This is where strong surveillance programmes, like Thailand’s, are critical. But it’s inevitable that bugs will develop resistance to the next antibiotic and then the next. So Balasegaram wants more investment in R&D that focuses not only on new antibiotics but also on alternative ways to treat bacterial infections. “We have to continue to do R&D into… therapeutic ways to treat these infections differently,” he says. “This may include novel and non-conventional approaches. I think that is a job that is going to last decades.” What that might look like is complex. It may include designing antibodies that specifically target bacteria or using bacteriophages – viruses that infect bacteria – as a replacement for antibiotics. Either way, many feel that the end of the antibiotic era is near and that the transition from antibiotics to non-traditional treatments poses major challenges that won’t be easy to solve. “It’s worth bearing in mind that bacteria can evolve to different approaches we develop,” says Balasegaram. “I don’t think we will see a magic bullet solution soon that will definitively solve the issue.” It’s a frightening thought. This article first appeared on Mosaic and is republished here under a Creative Commons licence.

Expert/s: Sophie Cousins
Prof Adam Watkins
Clinical Articles iconClinical Articles

ON THE PILL: In this seven-part series we explore the history, myths, side-effects and alternatives of the pill, and why it’s the most popular form of contraception in Australia.
The female contraceptive pill has helped millions of women take control of their fertility and reproductive health since it became available in 1961. Yet a male equivalent has yet to be fully developed. This effectively leaves men with only two viable contraceptive options: condoms or a vasectomy. The idea of creating a male contraceptive has been around almost as long as the female contraceptive. In theory, targeting the production of sperm should be a simple process. The biology of sperm production and how they swim towards the egg are well understood. Yet, studies aimed at developing an effective male pill have been dogged by issues such as severe side effects. Most recently, a study that injected men with the hormones testosterone and progestogen – similar to hormones found in the female pill – had to be stopped early.
Read more: Why the male 'pill' is still so hard to swallow
The study, from 2016, showed pregnancy rates for female partners of men receiving the injections fell below that typically seen for women on the pill. But the study was cut short due to reports of adverse side effects including acne, mood disorders and raised libido. For the men taking part, these side effects proved too severe for them to continue, despite the desired drop in sperm production. However, many people may see these side effects as relatively minor compared to those suffered by women on the pill, which include anxiety, weight gain, nausea, headaches, reduced libido and blood clots. Male contraceptives have been under development for at least 50 years. However, the drive to bring a male contraceptive onto the market has stalled for two main reasons. First, there is a general pessimism of men towards taking a contraceptive pill, especially in countries such as India. Second, the global success of the female pill provides little incentive for pharmaceuticals to invest in a male pill. Globally, the female pill is the third most-used form of contraception, with a projected market value of nearly US$23 billion by 2023. Despite these setbacks, a new way of thinking about male contraception is taking shape. Here, the focus has shifted from stopping sperm production to stopping the sperm being able to fertilise the egg.

The clean sheet pill

The clean sheet pill effectively works as its name suggests: preventing the release of sperm. The clean sheet pill has two main selling points. First, by preventing the release of sperm and the fluid they are carried in, the clean sheet pill simultaneously prevents unwanted pregnancy and the spread of sexually-transmitted infections. Second, because the pill does not affect the feeling of orgasm, there is no reduction in male sexual pleasure. Unfortunately, the clean sheet pill has so far only been tested in animals. As such, a version for human use is probably ten years away from being developed.

Vasalgel

One of the downsides of a vasectomy is that it can render a man permanently sterile. However, the recent development of a product call Vasalgel may offer men a serious alternative to a vasectomy. Vasalgel is a long-term, non-hormonal yet reversible form of contraception. This offers benefits over both hormonal contraceptives with their side effects as well as the permanency of a vasectomy. Vasalgel is polymer that is injected into the vas deferens, the tube that carries sperm from the testes. This allows the movement of fluid, but stops the passage of sperm.
Read more: A new male contraceptive could help men bear the family planning burden
In a trial in monkeys, Vasagel was found to be 100% effective at preventing conception. In separate studies in animals, the effect of Vasagel was easily reversed with a simple second injection to dissolve the polymer. If these effects are replicated in men, this could offer a low-cost, minimally invasive and effective contraceptive that is also reversible.

Heart-stopping poisons

A deadly, heart-stopping poison might not sound like a good starting point for a new male contraceptive. However, researchers have shown that a toxic compound call oubain can be be used to slow down the swimming of sperm. Researchers already knew that oubain could affect male fertility. But the cardio toxic effects of oubain prevented scientists from exploring its effects on male reproduction in any detail. By modifying the structure of the oubain molecule, researchers showed it can be used to reduce the motility (ability to swim) of rat sperm while being non-toxic to the heart.

Research and development

While research into male contraceptives have been ongoing for nearly 50 years, we still seem to be at least “five to ten years away” from an effective male pill.
Read more: We won't have a male contraceptive until we change our understanding of risk
Potential new targets for male contraceptives are being developed and tested scientifically all the time. However, without the significant input and push from big pharmaceutical companies, these discoveries may never see the light of day. The ConversationWith the cost of developing a new drug to market estimated at US$2.6 billion, the burden of family planning looks to remain firmly on the shoulders of women for now. Adam Watkins, Assistant Professor, University of Nottingham This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
Dr Smathi Chong
Clinical Articles iconClinical Articles

Herpes simplex virus (HSV) 1 and 2 are closely related to each other and more distantly related to Varicella Zoster virus (VZV), which causes Varicella (chicken pox) and Herpes Zoster (shingles). Traditionally HSV1 causes most oral herpes and HSV2 causes most genital herpes. But this is no longer so and has changed, probably due to more frequent oral sex. Figures from Clinipath 2017:
HSV Swab Origin HSV1 HSV2 VZV
Oral sites 93% 2% 5%
Genital/perineal sites 45% 50% 5%
HSV1 is frequently acquired in childhood and 75% of Australian adults would have had HSV1 by early adulthood. This would have been from oral contact with close friends and relatives who were shedding the virus, often asymptomatically. The classic “cold sores” are a blistering painful rash around the mouth Like other viruses in the Herpes family, this ‘lifelong’ infection can lay dormant and reactivate. The risk of reactivation and severe reactivation is higher in immunosuppressed individuals but in most people there is no readily identifiable reason for their reactivation. Stress is often blamed. Less common infections include:
  • HSV encephalitis (HSV1 in adults) and HSV meningitis (usually HSV2 in adults)
  • Conjunctivitis/keratitis – usually HSV1 or VZV (shingles affecting trigeminal nerve)
  • Herpetic whitlow – painful vesicles affecting the finger or thumb caused by HSV1 or 2

Genital Herpes

This causes most angst in patients as there is a social stigma. Approximately one in 7 of the general Australian adult population is seropositive to HSV2 but most are asymptomatic or subclinical. HSV Serology has a more limited role. Many clinicians (and patients) expect Herpes serology to be able to do more than it can! Test results may not answer many clinical or patients’ questions. A positive serology simply indicates a patient has been infected with HSV at some time in the past. It is not able to time the initial infection unless seroconversion (HSV IgG changing from negative to positive) can be demonstrated. In Herpes reactivation, the IgG would already be positive. Serology does not indicate the site of infection (e.g. oral or genital) although a strong positive HSV2 serology in the setting of painful genital lesions is likely to indicate genital herpes. Serology does not confirm whether symptoms are due to herpes. A positive PCR on a genital lesion would be more helpful. Positive serology is not able to tell if the person is infectious at the time of the test. HSV Serology or PCR would NOT be able to determine whether a person’s partner has been unfaithful! False positive (perhaps up to 5%) and false negative serology results can occur. Serology is often negative in acute primary herpes infection as HSV IgG can take a few weeks to a few months to become positive. Serology positivity may also decline over time. HSV IgM is no longer performed in most labs as they often throw up more confusion due to the non-specific nature of the test.

HSV in Pregnancy

HSV can cause severe neonatal infections including meningo-encephalitis, disseminated disease and even death. The highest risk is in symptomatic primary herpes infection of the birth canal/genital track. Herpes simplex serology may be more useful in the setting of pregnancy in patients with genital lesions suggestive of herpes to help risk stratify whether the episode is likely to be primary HSV. The highest risk would be PCR proven active genital lesions and negative serology. Treatment including anti-viral therapy and consideration of caesarean section may be discussed with the obstetrician. Management of the neonate with high risk of HSV should be handled by a neonatologist or paediatrician.

Treatment

These viruses may be treated with aciclovir, valaciclovir or famciclovir.
General Practice Pathology is a new regular column each authored by an Australian expert pathologist on a topic of particular relevance and interest to practising GPs. The authors provide this editorial, free of charge as part of an educational initiative developed and coordinated by Sonic Pathology.
Dr Vivienne Miller
Clinical Articles iconClinical Articles

Let us imagine that there has been a significant side-effect from a contraceptive choice occurs and a patient suffers harm. It is a known but very rare side-effect. How much legal and ethical responsibility lies with the doctor who prescribes the contraceptive, how much lies with the medical experts advocating this form of contraception as reasonable and safe, and how much lies with the pharmaceutical company who researched this product? Should this contraceptive be withdrawn from use, and if so, why would it be still available and advised for use in other countries around the world? A reasonable response to this question would include an assessment of the incidence of this particular complication among all users of this contraceptive, the incidence of any other significant complications, and the outcome for the patients of these complications. However, let us imagine the media finds this story and runs with it, giving widespread coverage of this single case and highlighting the contraceptive as the cause. This is the situation at present with the progestogen IUD, Mirena® in the United States. It is also the case with oral contraceptive pills that contain cyproterone acetate (such as Diane-35®) in Australia. Contraceptive pills like Diane-35® are more oestrogenic in their balance and this could potentially increase their risk of venous-thromboembolism (VTE), although this still remains somewhat controversial. It was temporarily banned in France because of this in 2013. However, the risks need to be put in perspective. Even if the worst case-scenario is accepted, the actual increased risk of VTE for these newer pills over older types is an extra four to six VTEs per 10,000 Pill users per year.1 “The risk of death from a VTE induced by a combined oral contraceptive is approximately one in 100,000, significantly less than the risk during pregnancy,” said Dr Foran. It is known that oral contraceptive pills containing 35ug ethinyl oestradiol and cyproterone acetate are being prescribed in Australia for indications beyond contraception, namely androgenising signs in women.  It is also known, that for some women these pills provide the best control of their symptoms. In Europe, the regulatory authorities decided that the benefits outweighed the rare risks for properly selected patients and this OCP was quickly reintroduced to the market after only six months. However, in Australia there have recently been calls for the banning or restriction of this product in Australia following the diagnosis of a VTE in a young woman. How reasonable is it in our society to allow the traumatic stories of individuals to override medical opinion and determine regulation? The public needs to be made to realise that not only are these products very safe for the overwhelming majority of women, when prescribed appropriately, but they are also so much safer for women than an unplanned pregnancy would be. It might be valid to argue that there are other combined oral contraceptives that are ‘safer’ than those containing 35ug ethinyl oestradiol and cyproterone acetate, or that cyproterone acetate is available separately for use. However, what happens when one of these other oral contraceptive choices causes a major medical event in a different woman? In the UK, doctors have been advised to warn patients that there is an increased risk of VTE with Femodene®, Marvelon® and Yasmin® named as some examples. The Daily Mail UK1 had a massive heading to this effect: “Deadly risk of pill used by one million women: Every GP in Britain told to warn about threat from popular contraceptive” If media and legal pressure is allowed to result in the withdrawal of these medications, at some stage, there will be no oral contraceptive choices left. The seriousness of the situation is highlighted in the case of the Mirena® IUD, since there is no similar alternative to this product in Australia. In the United States, this contraceptive device has been under a cloud of bad publicity since 2009, due to US Food and Drug Administration warnings relating to migration and perforation. Since then, the Mirena® IUD has been scrutinised by patients with side-effects and, of course, lawyers. “The real question here is whether hysterectomy or endometrial ablation is a safer option than the Mirena® IUD for women with heavy menstrual bleeding.” Dr Foran. The maintenance of a range of choices is important and women should have the right to make these decisions for themselves in consultation with their doctors. The Mirena IUD is also a safe form of contraception, especially for women who have thrombophilias and for older premenopausal women, most of whose other choices are less safe. Is it still enough for doctors to fully inform women of the side-effects and complications of their contraceptive options and to let them decide, or is modern contraception becoming a very personal, public and legal battlefield, the main casualties of this being expert medical advice and a woman’s choice?  …and in the end, who is left holding the baby?  
  1. Bitzer J et al. Statement on combined hormonal contraceptives containing third- or fourth-generation progestogens or cyproterone acetate and the associated risk of thromboembolism. J Fam Plann Reprod Health Care. doi: 10. 1136/ jfprhc-2013-100624 http://srh.bmj.com/content/familyplanning/early/2013/04/10/jfprhc-2013-100624.full.pdf
  2. Daily Mail, UK, 22nd Feb 2018 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2550216/Deadly-risk-pill-used-1m-women-Every-GP-Britain-told-warn-threat-popular-contraceptive.html
  This article is based on an interview with Dr Terri Foran, Sexual Health Physician, Lecturer with the UNSW’s School of Women’s and Children’s Health and Director of Master Women’s Health Medicine on Saturday 17th February 2018 at the Annual Women’s and Children’s Health Update, Sydney

Pathologists from Sullivan Nicolaides Pathology
Clinical Articles iconClinical Articles

Syphilis

Syphilis, caused by the spirochaete Treponema pallidum is an old disease. Many notable figures throughout history are thought to have suffered from this scourge. It remains exquisitely sensitive to penicillin so, in theory, should be easily treatable. Over the past two years, the number of notified cases of infectious syphilis – syphilis of less than two years' duration — has continued to grow. In the Northern Territory and Queensland, the emerging risk groups are young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), particularly people from the north of the State. In this group, in which young females are infected, there is now a real risk of new cases of congenital syphilis. In other geographical areas, gay and bisexual males form the major risk group. Co-infections with other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are common and should always be tested for simultaneously. Similarly, all STI screens should include a test for syphilis. At-risk patients require screening for co-existing chlamydia, gonorrhoea and/or and trichomonas if the patient belongs to the ATSI group. Screening for HIV, hepatitis A, B and C should also occur, with hepatitis A and B vaccination in those who are non-immune. The recommended regular screening for asymptomatic gay and bisexual males is outlined in the now renamed STIGMA guidelines (http://stipu.nsw.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/STIGMA_Testing_Guidelines_Final_v5.pdf).

Presentation

Early or infectious syphilis (less than two years' duration) includes primary, secondary and early latent syphilis (Algorithms 1 and 2). • Primary syphilis usually manifests as a chancre (an anogenital or, less commonly, extragenital painless, but also sometimes painful, ulcer with indurated edges). • Progression to secondary syphilis occurs over the following months and presents as an acute systemic illness with rash, which is usually truncal, but also involving palms and soles, condylomata lata (clusters of soft, moist lumps in skin folds of the anogenital area), mucosal lesions, alopecia, lymphadenopathy, hepatitis, or meningitis. • Early latent syphilis is infection of less than two years' duration where the patient is asymptomatic. Late latent syphilis is defined as latent (asymptomatic) syphilis of longer than two years' duration, or of unknown duration. Tertiary syphilis refers to syphilis of longer than two years' duration, or of unknown duration, with cardiovascular, central nervous system or skin and bone (gummatous syphilis) involvement. Risk of transmission of syphilis from a pregnant mother to her fetus depends on the stage of syphilis during pregnancy. Management is clearly outlined in the ASID Management of Perinatal Infections Guidelines (https://www.asid. net.au/documents/item/368)
General Practice Pathology is a new regular column each authored by an Australian expert pathologist on a topic of particular relevance and interest to practising GPs. The authors provide this editorial, free of charge as part of an educational initiative developed and coordinated by Sonic Pathology.
A/Prof John Litt AM
Monographs iconMonographs

This article discusses herpes zoster, the condition and its complications as well as the benefits, risks and challenges associated with the herpes zoster vaccine.

Prof Shaun Roman
Clinical Articles iconClinical Articles

With the release of a new TV series based on Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, and a recent study claiming male sperm count is decreasing globally, fertility is in the spotlight. Many want to know if the dystopian future Atwood created in which the world has largely become infertile, is in fact possible. And are we on our way there already?

What this latest study found

The recent paper that hit headlines all over the world highlighted the issue of declining sperm numbers in Western men. The study is a meta-analysis, which gathers together similar studies and combines the results. Each of the studies in the analysis has different men assessed at different times by different researchers. This means, as a whole, it is not as powerful as a study examining the same men over time. And many of the individual studies assessed have their own problems.
Read more - Health Check: when does fertility decline?

So is fertility actually declining?

The current estimate is that Western men produce 50 million sperm per millilitre in an ejaculate, which is lower than previously. However, only one sperm is needed to fertilise an egg, so 50 million sperm per ml suggests human males don’t have a problem just yet. There are data indicating that from below 40 million sperm per ml there is a linear relationship between sperm numbers and probability of pregnancy. The World Health Organisation (WHO) suggests 15 million per ml sperm is a minimum to be considered fertile. The minimum is based on men who have successfully fathered a child in the last 12 months. By definition, 5% of the men with numbers below 15 million per ml will still be able to reproduce. For females the issue that needs to be understood is that there is already a small window of time women are fertile, and this is decreasing as women are more educated and career-focused. Women have their highest number of eggs when they are still a fetus in their mother’s womb. About one sixth of the eggs are left at birth and by puberty the number is 500,000 eggs or less. From puberty until 37 years of age there is a steady decline from 500,000 to 25,000 eggs. After 37 years, the rate of decline increases and by menopause (average age of 51 in the US) only 1,000 eggs remain. It’s important to realise these are average numbers and there is no guarantee a woman will have 25,000 eggs at 37. The other issue is quality. Chromosomal issues (such as Down’s syndrome - where a person has three copies of chromosome 21 instead of two) increase with maternal age. IVF is seen as a way of rescuing fertility, but the success rate of 41.5% is for women younger than 35, and measures pregnancies, not live births. By 40 years old, that success rate is 22% and by 43 years it’s 5%.
Read more - Explainer: what causes women’s fertility to decline with age?
In short, the situation for women is not great, but the numbers are not changing with time (estimates of fertility from 1600 to 1950 don’t differ).

What is affecting fertility today?

The key determinant in women’s fertility is education - not individuals’ education but that of the community as a whole. If your community becomes educated, your fertility declines, as women become educated and less likely to have children in their youth. Choosing to delay having a child is not the only issue. Lifestyle choices matter. We know smoking, alcohol and obesity all affect the number and quality of eggs a woman has. As a female has all the eggs she will ever have when she is in her mother’s womb, the mother smoking will affect those eggs. Smoking in pregnancy is declining slowly (from 15% in 2009 to 11% in 2014) but is still very high in the Indigenous population (45%).
Read more: Why women’s eggs run out and what can be done about it
Smoking and alcohol are said to be major factors contributing to male sperm numbers but the evidence is limited by the nature of the studies. The effects of obesity and stress have the clearest evidence. For example, increased levels of anxiety and stress have been associated with lower sperm count. Life stress (defined as two or more stressful events in the last 12 months) has been found to have an effect, but not job stress. For men, the numbers themselves represent a blunt measure of fertility. It’s the quality of the sperm produced that’s of concern. The WHO minimum is that only 4% of male sperm need to be of good appearance to be considered fertile. It’s not really possible for us to be able to tell which of many factors may be influencing sperm appearance.

Problems with studying fertility

While we can talk about what research says on fertility, there are a few inherent problems with researching in this field. Most of the data we have on sperm count come from two sources: men attending an infertility clinic, and those undergoing a medical prior to military service. The first is restricted to those who likely already have a problem. The second is limited to one age group. Meta-analyses, which combine the results from lots of studies, are limited to those all using the same tools and approaches so they can be compared. As a result, a large meta-analysis that suggested smoking is detrimental was limited to men attending an infertility clinic, which would indicate many of them are likely to be infertile anyway. Another big study used conscripts in the US and Europe but failed to find an association between fertility and alcohol consumption. This is because it only assessed the alcohol consumed the week prior to the medical - and most recruits probably wouldn’t be out drinking in the days leading up to their medical.

So could we become extinct?

The reproduction rate is below that required for total population replacement in the US, Australia, and many other countries. But the human population in total is still growing as it ages.
Read more: Most men don’t realise age is a factor in their fertility too
The start of this millennium also represented the time when births for women aged 30-34 overtook those in the 25-29 age group, and the 35-39 age group overtook the 20-24 age group. Teenage pregnancy (15-19 years) is now level with older mums (40-44) in Australia. The quality of the sperm and egg is more important than the numbers. While we are still investigating what quality means to future generations, we do know that infertility represents a predictor of increased death rates. Men diagnosed with infertility had a higher risk of developing diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, alcohol abuse and drug abuse. The ConversationUltimately it’s not a numbers game but a quality game. This is true not just for the chances of having a child but having a healthy child. More immediately, fertility is a predictor of general health. While it does not appear that we are going to be extinct soon (at least not through reproductive failure), sperm quality could be a signal of wider health problems and should be investigated further. Shaun Roman, Senior Lecturer, University of Newcastle This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.